Energy Markets Dashboard

                Executive Summary: The global electricity sector has entered what the IEA calls a new "Age of Electricity." After 15 years of flat U.S. demand, AI-driven data centers, transport electrification, and rising cooling demand have produced the most significant structural shift in power markets since post-WWII electrification.
            

3.6%

Global Demand Growth (Annual, 2026-2030)

+1,100 TWh added yearly

$600B

Required Annual Grid Investment by 2030

+50% from current $400B

2,500+ GW

Projects Stalled in Grid Queues Globally

Critical infrastructure bottleneck

Key Market Dynamics

Data Centers: U.S. consumption projected to reach 9-12% of national electricity by 2030, up from 4% in 2024
Renewables Dominance: 88% of new U.S. capacity additions (Jan-Nov 2025); global additions hit record 510 GW in 2024
China's Scale: Added record 429 GW in 2024 (21% y/y increase); 277 GW solar alone
Grid Crisis: 2,600 GW in U.S. interconnection queues (nearly 2x current grid size); 7-year wait times in Virginia
Price Pressures: U.S. residential rates rose from 16.0¢/kWh (2023) to 17.78¢/kWh (Nov 2025)

U.S. Historical (2023-2025)

Demand Reawakening

2023: -1.3% (14-year stagnation ending)
2024: +3.0% (+128 TWh, 5th highest growth this century)
2025: +2.0% (+93 BkWh generation increase)
Data centers: 176 TWh in 2023 (4.4% of total demand)
50+ GW new data center capacity announced since Jan 2023

Supply Mix Transformation

Solar: 27 consecutive months as largest capacity source (Sep 2023-Nov 2025)
2024: 30 GW utility-scale solar, 10.4 GW battery storage added
Renewables: 88% of new capacity (Jan-Nov 2025)
Natural gas: Only 2.5 GW added in 2024 (lowest in 25 years)
Utility-scale solar grew 91.82 GW → 163.44 GW (2023-2025)

Pricing Environment

Metric	2023	2024	2025	Change
Residential Electricity (¢/kWh)	16.0	16.5	17.78	+11.1%
Henry Hub Nat Gas ($/MMBtu)	2.54	2.26	3.52	+56% (2024-25)
Wholesale Power (ISO-NE increase)	—	—	+$29/MWh	Largest hub increase

Grid Reliability Crisis

                    Critical Infrastructure Constraints: Nearly 2,600 GW in interconnection queues (almost 2x current grid). MISO entered summer 2025 with negative reserve margins under extreme conditions. 50+ GW coal retirements scheduled by 2030.
                

NERC 2025: Peak demand exceeded prior year by 10+ GW
7.4 GW conventional generation retired ahead of summer 2025
ERCOT: 2,000+ interconnection requests (May 2025)
Northern Virginia data centers: 7-year wait for power
83+ GW fossil/nuclear retirements anticipated through 2033

U.S. Forecast (2026-2028)

5.7%

Grid Strategies: Avg Annual Growth (5 Years)

6x increase from 2022 forecast

166 GW

5-Year Peak Demand Growth

= 15x NYC peak load

123 GW

AI Data Center Demand by 2035

From 4 GW in 2024

Demand Drivers

IEA: 2% annual U.S. growth through 2030 (≈ adding California's consumption over 3 years)
Data Centers: Could consume 9-12% of national electricity by 2030 (from 4% in 2024)
Lawrence Berkeley Lab: Data center energy use to double or triple by 2028
Regional Concentration: ERCOT, PJM, MISO account for ~70% of 5-year growth
Deloitte Survey: 79% of executives identified grid stress as leading data center challenge

Supply Pipeline

Source	2026 Planned Additions	3-Year Forecast (through 2028)
Solar	43.4 GW (+60% vs 2025)	→ 17.2% of installed capacity
Natural Gas	6.3 GW	114,000 MW in construction/pre-construction
Battery Storage	~20 GW (estimated)	63 GW total new capacity in 2025
Renewables (Total)	—	106,492 MW net additions (FERC)

                The Grid Bottleneck: The single greatest constraint is not generation—it's grid infrastructure. Three dimensions: (1) 2,600 GW interconnection queue with 3-5+ year waits, (2) Transmission designed for centralized thermal generation, not distributed renewables, (3) Supply chain and workforce limitations flagged by NERC and IEA.
            

International Historical (2023-2025)

4.4%

Global Demand Growth (2024)

3% in 2025; outpacing GDP

82%

Asia-Pacific Share of Global Demand Growth (2015-2024)

5% annual growth rate

China: Unprecedented Scale

2024 Capacity Additions: Record 429 GW (21% y/y increase)
Renewable Dominance: Wind + solar = 83% of new capacity (356.5 GW)
Solar Alone: 277.2 GW added in 2024 (28% y/y increase, following 2023 doubling)
2025 Estimate: 300+ GW solar, 100+ GW wind (both national records)
Historic Milestone: Coal generation fell 1.6% in 2025 (first decline from clean energy displacement)
Grid Infrastructure: 12.4 million km (world's largest); ~200 GW ultra-high-voltage transmission capacity

India: Fastest-Growing Major Market

2025 Additions (Jan-Nov): 35 GW solar, 6 GW wind, 3.5 GW hydro
Renewable Growth: Capacity additions up 44% year-over-year
Coal Decline: Generation fell 3.0% in 2025
Non-Fossil Growth: +71 TWh while total generation +21 TWh
Total Renewable Capacity: ~190 GW (2023), projected to reach 360-380 GW by 2030

Europe: Post-Crisis Recalibration

Metric	Status
Renewable Share of Generation	>40% of EU total (2023)
Solar Generation Growth	+20% y/y (2024)
Wind + Solar Additions	~25 GW per H1 (2023-2025)
Price vs Pre-War Levels	2x+ despite wholesale decline
Q2 2025 Consumption	1,105 TWh (~15% of global demand)

Key Challenge: Electricity prices remain more than 2x pre-Ukraine war levels, placing energy-intensive industries at competitive disadvantage vs U.S. and China.

Global Clean Energy Investment

                    Record Investment: $2.4 trillion in energy transition technologies (2024), up 20% from 2022-23 average. Grid investment grew 14% to $359 billion.
                

Global renewable capacity grew record 510 GW in 2024
2025 energy transition investment: $2.3 trillion (BloombergNEF)
Critical Gap: 1,650+ GW waiting in grid connection queues (up from 1,500 GW in 2023)
Queue projects = 5x the amount of new capacity commissioned in 2022

International Forecast (2026-2028)

3.6%

Global Annual Demand Growth (2026-2030)

+1,100 TWh per year

33,600 TWh

Global Consumption by 2030

From 28,200 TWh in 2025

24%

Electricity Share of Final Energy (2030)

From 21% in 2025

Regional Growth Forecasts

Region	Annual Growth	Key Driver	Notable Data Point
China	~4.9%	Industrial electrification, EVs	~50% of global increase through 2030
India	~6.4%	Cooling, agriculture, industry	Adding 570+ TWh over 5 years
Asia-Pacific (ex CN/IN)	~5.0%	Industrialization, urbanization	82% of global growth 2015-2024
United States	~2.0%	Data centers (~50% of growth)	Demand rebounding after 15-yr stagnation
Europe	~2.0%	EVs, heat pumps, manufacturing	Not returning to 2021 levels before 2028

Generation Mix Transformation

Renewables + Nuclear: Expected to reach 50% of global generation by 2030 (from 42% today)
Solar Trajectory: To overtake wind and nuclear by 2026; surpass hydropower by 2029 in annual additions
Natural Gas: Continued expansion in U.S. and Middle East
Coal: Generation falls back to 2021 levels by decade's end
Emerging Economies: ~80% of additional demand through 2030

The Global Grid Crisis

                    Defining Infrastructure Challenge: Over 2,500 GW of projects stalled in grid connection queues worldwide. Annual grid investment must rise ~50% from today's ~$400B to ~$600B by 2030.
                

Germany: 9,710 battery storage connection requests in 2024 (≈400 GW / 661 GWh)
UK: 250+ GW contracted to connect; total queues likely exceeding 800 GW (4x needed capacity by 2050)
IEA Estimate: 1,600 GW of queued projects could be integrated near-term with grid-enhancing tech and regulatory reforms
2025 Investment: Expected to exceed $410B, but needs to reach ~$600B/year by 2030

Major Grid Investment Programs

Country/Entity	Investment Program
Germany	$278B planned (2022-2035, BNEF Net Zero Scenario)
Italy (Terna)	$23B over 10 years, including $12B "hypergrid" with 5 new electricity backbones
Iberdrola (Spain)	€55B grid capex (2026-2031), 75% increase
European Power Market	$303B (2024) → $420.2B (2033 projected), 3.7% CAGR
China	2025 target: ~542.7 GW new capacity (larger than many countries' total grids)

Strategic Investment Themes

1. Grid Infrastructure: Highest-Conviction Play

Regardless of which generation technology wins, every electron must travel through wires.

Durability: Multi-decade capital deployment opportunity with regulated-return characteristics
Required Investment: ~50% increase globally (from $400B to $600B annually by 2030)
Bottleneck Premium: Projects securing grid access early gain competitive moats
Policy Support: U.S. IIJA/IRA allocated $29B to grid initiatives, stimulating $83B through 2030
Technology Opportunity: Grid-enhancing technologies could integrate 1,600 GW of queued projects near-term

2. Natural Gas: The Bridge Fuel That Refuses to Retire

U.S. Pipeline: 114+ GW in construction/pre-construction (2x prior year mid-2025)
Dispatchable Premium: Commands premium pricing when reliability is non-negotiable
Continued Global Expansion: Growth in U.S. and Middle East through 2030
Price Volatility: Henry Hub ranged $2.26 (2024 record low) to $30.72/MMBtu (Jan 2026 cold snap)
Market Signal: 2024 had lowest nat gas additions in 25 years, yet 2025-26 sees massive expansion

3. Solar: Unstoppable Generation Economics

                    Key Insight: Solar economics at generation level are proven. Value chain bottleneck has shifted from panel manufacturing to grid connection and storage integration.
                

U.S. Trajectory: 43.4 GW planned for 2026 (60% increase); approaching 17.2% of installed capacity by 2028
China's Scale: 277 GW added in 2024 alone; 300+ GW expected in 2025
Global Forecast: Solar to overtake wind and nuclear by 2026; surpass hydropower by 2029
Storage Complement: 81% of U.S. new capacity in 2025 from solar + batteries
Investment Risk: Projects without secured grid access face capital destruction via queue delays

4. Data Center Power: New Secular Growth Driver

Historical Parallel: Replacing mid-20th century electrification-of-households as primary utility growth driver
Demand Characteristics: Concentrated, high-load-factor, premium pricing for speed-to-power
Scale: 176 TWh consumed in 2023 (4.4% of U.S. demand) → projected 9-12% by 2030
AI Amplification: AI data centers alone: 4 GW (2024) → 123 GW projected by 2035 (Deloitte)
Regional Concentration: Northern Virginia wait times: 7 years for power connection
Emerging Strategy: Grid bypass solutions gaining traction in 2026 due to queue crisis

5. Interconnection Queue Crisis: Risk & Opportunity

                    Critical Bifurcation: Projects securing grid access early gain competitive moats. Those stuck in multi-year queues face potential capital destruction.
                

U.S. Queue Size: 2,600 GW (nearly 2x current grid); 30% increase in 2023 alone
Global Scale: 2,500+ GW stalled worldwide; 1,650+ GW in 2024 up from 1,500 GW in 2023
Timeline Risk: Average 3-5+ years for approval; some markets reaching 7 years
Opportunity Set: Grid-enhancing technologies, storage solutions, regulatory reform enablers
Valuation Impact: Permitted vs. unpermitted projects trading at significant premium

Buffett-Lens Summary

The electricity sector presents a rare combination of secular demand growth (3.6% globally through 2030), infrastructure scarcity (grid capacity), technological disruption (renewables + storage), and regulatory moats (interconnection approvals). The highest-quality investments will likely concentrate in: (1) regulated grid infrastructure with visibility into multi-decade capital deployment programs, (2) dispatchable generation assets serving reliability-critical loads, and (3) developers with proven ability to navigate interconnection queues and secure offtake agreements with credit-worthy counterparties willing to pay premiums for speed-to-power.